Olav Skarpaas

• Buckley, Yvonne M.; Finn, Alain; Molloy, Aoife; Csergő, Anna Mária; Crone, Elizabeth & Smith, Annabel L. [Show all 66 contributors for this article] (2026). Quality Assurance Framework for the Design, Collection and Curation of Standard Data Products From a Distributed Ecology Network. Ecology and Evolution. 16(8). doi: 10.1002/ece3.74000. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ABSTRACT Ecological data are increasingly collected by networks of collaborators using replicated designs and methods, which can significantly improve the quality and quantity of data throughout the ecological niche and geographic range of species or communities. The coordinated generation and management of data is critical for producing datasets (Standard Data Products) across multiple sites that can be used by different researchers, over extended time periods and for multiple purposes. We describe and use a Quality Assurance framework for the design, collection and production of reproducible Standard Data Products for distributed ecology projects. We identified six critical project elements of a Quality Assurance framework (QA1‐6) to produce ecological Standard Data Products with high immediate and future value. We applied the Quality Assurance framework to the Plantpopnet project as a case‐study. Plantpopnet is a coordinated distributed system for population macroecology using the model species Plantago lanceolata . We mapped Plantpopnet activities to the Quality Assurance Framework as follows: (QA1) Measurable objectives : research project objectives with data requirements, (QA2) Process control : governance policies, (QA3) Project specific procedures : model organism selection and data collection protocol, (QA4) Supporting production of high quality data : recruitment, retention and engagement of participants, (QA5) Data management : data management plan and reproducible data cleaning workflow, (QA6) Production and management of outputs : Standard Data Products and papers. Explicit use of Quality Assurance, project and data management tools together with standardised ecological methods facilitated the design, collection, maintenance and sustainability of high‐quality data products. We provide a Quality Assurance framework together with governance documents, code and data for a reproducible Standard Data Product. This framework supports a distributed funding model which can be sustainably applied to facilitate future research and applications of coordinated distributed ecology projects.

• Naas, Adam Eindride; Simensen, Trond; Keetz, Lasse Torben; Tjessem, Ingrid Vesterdal; Bryn, Anders & Halvorsen, Rune [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2026). Supporting spatial planning with high-spatial-resolution model-based ecosystem maps. Environmental impact assessment review. ISSN 0195-9255. 120. doi: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108433. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Field-based ecosystem maps are often used to support environmental impact assessments (EIAs) in later stages of spatial planning. During the early stages, however, information on geographical distributions of ecosystems is typically unavailable. This can result in uninformed decisions, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Although model-based maps offer low-cost wall-to-wall coverage, they are rarely used for spatial planning. Using Norway as a study system, we aimed to: (1) quantify the coverage of field-based ecosystem maps in areas reserved for development; (2) use a model-based map to assess ecosystem extents in these areas; and (3) provide guidance on how model-based maps can support spatial planning. We first collated municipality-level land-use plans and intersected these with existing field-based ecosystem maps created for EIAs. Then, we constructed a model-based map for 17 ecosystem types with a 10 m × 10 m resolution that was intersected with the unsurveyed land-use plans. We estimated that 4.2 km2 of land is reserved for development in an average municipality, of which 0.3 km2 is covered by field-based maps. Our model-based map indicates, with moderate uncertainty, that 260 km2 covered by red-listed ecosystem types is at risk of being affected if unsurveyed land reserves are developed. However, improvements in model training and uncertainty quantification methodology should be considered to increase utility of the maps. We provide guidelines for using model-based ecosystem maps in spatial planning, especially in early planning stages, aiming to support decision-making while taking the limitations of model-based maps into account.

• Baudraz, Maude E. A.; Childs, Dylan Z.; Kelly, Ruth; Smith, Annabel L.; Villellas, Jesus & Andrzejak, Martin [Show all 62 contributors for this article] (2025). Several candidate size metrics explain vital rates across multiple populations throughout a widespread species' range. Journal of Ecology. ISSN 0022-0477. doi: 10.1111/1365-2745.70148. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Individual plant size often determines the vital rates of growth, survival and reproduction. However, size can be measured in several ways (e.g. height, biomass, leaf length). There is no consensus on the best size metric for modelling vital rates in plants. Demographic datasets are expanding in geographic extent, leading to choices about how to represent size for the same species in multiple ecological contexts. If the choice of size variable varies among locations, inter‐population comparative demography increases in complexity. Here, we present a framework to perform size metric selection in large‐scale demographic studies. We highlight potential pitfalls and suggest methods applicable to diverse study organisms. We assessed the performance of five different size metrics for the perennial herb Plantago lanceolata , across 55 populations on three continents within its native and non‐native ranges, using the spatially replicated demographic dataset PlantPopNet. We compared the performance of each candidate size metric for four vital rates (growth, survival, flowering probability and reproductive output) using generalized linear mixed models. We ranked the candidate size metrics based on their overall performance (highest generalized R 2 ) and homogeneity of performance across populations (lowest total magnitude of, and variance in, population‐level error). While all size variables performed well for modelling vital rates, the number of leaves (modelled as a discrete variable, without transformation) was selected as the best size metric, followed by leaf length. We show how to interrogate potential trade‐offs between overall explanatory power and homogeneity of predictions across populations in any organism. Synthesis . Size is an important determinant of vital rates. Using a dataset of unprecedented spatial extent, we find (a) consistent size‐based models of growth, survival and reproduction across native and non‐native populations of this cosmopolitan plant species and (b) that several tested size metrics perform similarly well. This is encouraging for large‐scale demographic studies and for comparative projects using different size metrics, as they may be robust to this methodological difference.

• Keetz, Lasse Torben; Aalstad, Kristoffer; Fisher, Rosie; Terán, Christian Poppe; Naz, Bibi S. & Pirk, Norbert [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2025). Inferring Parameters in a Complex Land Surface Model by Combining Data Assimilation and Machine Learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 17(6). doi: 10.1029/2024MS004542. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Complex Land Surface Models (LSMs) rely on a plethora of parameters. These parameters and the associated process formulations are often poorly constrained, which hampers reliable predictions of ecosystem dynamics and climate feedbacks. Robust and uncertainty-aware parameter estimation with observations is complicated by, for example, the high dimensionality of the model parameter space and the computational cost of LSM simulations. Herein, we adapt a novel Bayesian data assimilation (DA) and machine learning framework termed “calibrate, emulate, sample” (CES) to infer parameters in a widely-used LSM coupled with a demographic vegetation model (CLM-FATES). First, an iterative ensemble Kalman smoother provides an initial estimate of the posterior distribution (“calibrate”). Subsequently, a machine-learning-based emulator is trained on the resulting model-observation mismatches to predict outcomes for unseen parameter combinations (“emulate”). Finally, this emulator replaces CLM-FATES simulations in an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach enabling computationally feasible posterior sampling with enhanced uncertainty quantification (“sample”). We test our implementation with synthetic and real observations representing a boreal forest site in southern Finland. We estimate a total of six plant-functional-type-specific photosynthetic parameters by assimilating evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) flux data. CES provided the best estimates of the synthetic truth parameters when compared to data-blind emulator sampling designs while all approaches reduced model-observation errors compared to a default parameter simulation (GPP: - 10% to - 30%, ET: -4% to -6%). Although errors were also consistently reduced with real data, comparing the emulator designs was less conclusive, which we mainly attribute to equifinality, structural uncertainty within CLM-FATES, and/or unknown errors in the data that are not accounted for.

• Handegard, Eivind; Gjerde, Ivar; Halvorsen, Rune; Lewis, Robert John; Storaunet, Ken Olaf & Sætersdal, Magne [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). How important is Forest Age in explaining the species composition of Near-natural Spruce Forests? Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. 569. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2024.122170. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Multiple ecological drivers, along with forest age, determine the species composition of boreal forest ecosystems. However, the role of age in successional changes in forests cannot be understood without taking site conditions, the disturbance regime and forest structure into account. In this study, we ask two research questions: 1. What is the relationship between forest age and overall species composition in older near-natural spruce forests, i.e. forests of age beyond harvest maturity? 2. Do species associated with different forest habitats respond similarly to variation in forest age? Data were collected in 257 Norway spruce dominated 0.25 ha plots from three study areas in Southeastern and Central Norway. Species inventories were conducted for lichens and bryophytes on trees and rocks, vascular plants on the forest floor, and for deadwood-associated bryophytes and polypore fungi. Although NMDS ordination analyses of the total species composition identified a main axis related to the age of the oldest trees in two of the study areas, variation partitioning analyses showed that age explained a small fraction of variation of the species composition compared to site conditions, logging history, forest structure, and differences between the sites in all habitats. The unique variation explained by forest age species was, however, significant for all habitats. The fraction of variation in species composition explained by forest age was the largest for lichens and bryophytes on trees, and for deadwood-associated bryophytes and polypore fungi. Our results suggest that practical mapping of near-natural forests for management purposes inventories should include site conditions, forest structure and between site differences in addition to forest age.

• Keetz, Lasse Torben; Lieungh, Eva; Karimi-Asli, Kaveh; Geange, Sonya Rita; Gelati, Emiliano & Tang, Hui [Show all 24 contributors for this article] (2023). Climate–ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013. 29(15), p. 4440–4452. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16808. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

• Naas, Adam Eindride; Halvorsen, Rune; Horvath, Peter; Wollan, Anders Kvalvåg; Bratli, Harald & Brynildsrud, Katrine Marie [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2023). What explains inconsistencies in field-based ecosystem mapping? Applied Vegetation Science. ISSN 1402-2001. 26(1). doi: 10.1111/avsc.12715. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Questions Field-based ecosystem mapping is prone to observer bias, typically resulting in a mismatch between maps made by different mappers, that is, inconsistency. Experimental studies testing the influence of site, mapping scale, and differences in experience level on inconsistency in field-based ecosystem mapping are lacking. Here, we study how inconsistencies in field-based ecosystem maps depend on these factors. Location Iškoras and Guollemuorsuolu, northeastern Norway, and Landsvik and Lygra, western Norway. Methods In a balanced experiment, four sites were field-mapped wall-to-wall to scales 1:5000 and 1:20,000 by 12 mappers, representing three experience levels. Thematic inconsistency was calculated by overlay analysis of map pairs from the same site, mapped to the same scale. We tested for significant differences between sites, scales, and experience-level groups. Principal components analysis was used in an analysis of additional map inconsistencies and their relationships with site, scale and differences in experience level and time consumption were analysed with redundancy analysis. Results On average, thematic inconsistency was 51%. The most important predictor for thematic inconsistency, and for all map inconsistencies, was site. Scale and its interaction with site predicted map inconsistencies, but only the latter were important for thematic inconsistency. The only experience-level group that differed significantly from the mean thematic inconsistency was that of the most experienced mappers, with nine percentage points. Experience had no significant effect on map inconsistency as a whole. Conclusion Thematic inconsistency was high for all but the dominant thematic units, with potentially adverse consequences for mapping ecosystems that are fragmented or have low coverage. Interactions between site and mapping system properties are considered the main reasons why no relationships between scale and thematic inconsistency were observed. More controlled experiments are needed to quantify the effect of other factors on inconsistency in field-based mapping.

• Kausrud, Kyrre; Vandvik, Vigdis; Flø, Daniel; Geange, Sonya Rita; Hegland, Stein Joar & Hermansen, Jo Skeie [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2022). Impacts of climate change on the boreal forest ecosystem. VKM Report. 2022(15), p. 1–400. doi: https:/vkm.no/english/riskassessments/allpublications/climatechangeandeffectsontheforestecosystem.4.3ab0c18c17889d7716c94c99.html. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Climate change will lead to more extreme weather and forest damage, and in this century will significantly change Norwegian boreal forests. Greater diversity of trees and other organisms can make the boreal forest more robust and resistant to changes. This is the key message in a knowledge summary made by the Scientific Committee for Food and Environment (VKM) for the Norwegian Environment Agency. Most of the forest in Norway is part of the coniferous forest belt that stretches from Fennoscandia through Siberia, Alaska, and Canada. These forests are shaped by the boreal climate zone in which they grow. Boreal forest covers almost 40 per cent of the Norwegian land area. As global warming becomes more prevalent closer to the polar regions, Norwegian forests are vulnerable to rapid climate change. Norwegian forests vulnerable to rapid climate change: model shows boreal forest now and model for late-century Methods VKM has assessed and summarized knowledge about how climate change will affect the ecological state of Norwegian forests, and whether there are factors that make the ecosystem more vulnerable or more resistant to climate change. The summary is based on a comprehensive review of scientific studies and covers most aspects of the structure of the forest ecosystem, including biodiversity, and function, such as carbon storage. VKM has summarized the effects of changes caused by climate, and not by other human activity. Findings "Based on the knowledge we have today, Norwegian forests will be moderately to heavily affected by climate change from now towards the end of the century. The degree of impact depends on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, stabilise, or decrease over the next decades," explains Kyrre Kausrud, scientific leader for the project. In the short term, i.e., up to 2030 – 2050, some positive and negative effects of climate change may offset each other. Spruce, for example, can benefit from a prolonged growing season and increased precipitation. At the same time, it appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate impacts. Spruce tolerates droughts and heat waves poorly and is susceptible to several insects and fungal diseases, all of which are likely to increase in scope with higher temperatures. "We must therefore expect an increase in damage to Norwegian forest trees, especially spruce, as we have already seen in some spruce forests on the European continent. Insect infestations and various diseases will probably cause the most death for established trees. There will also be a risk of more forest fires and storm felling," says Kausrud. It is likely that climate change will impair the forest ecosystem's ability to store carbon, since degradation of organic matter found in the soil in boreal forests will accelerate when the climate is warmer. "Carbon loss can be reversed over the years, but in the meantime, it is a problem that higher temperatures lead to increased release of greenhouse gases, and that our most prevalent tree species are vulnerable to a warming climate. "In the long term, from 2040-2060 until 2100, the negative effects will become more dominant. This especially applies to the effects of extreme weather and damage," says Kausrud. Uncertainty Kausrud emphasises that there is considerable uncertainty about the conclusions. "Climate warming is taking place more quickly and on a larger scale than we have seen before. Therefore, the basis for comparison is absent, and predictions of how complex ecosystems will behave are similarly uncertain. If the changes continue at a moderately bleak pace, in 40 to 80 years most Norwegian forests will no longer be in the boreal climatic zone. It is difficult to imagine what will happen when such large areas transition into a new vegetation-climactic zone during the lifetime of trees," continues Kausrud. Develop more rugged forests VKM points out that variety and diversity at all trophic levels can help make the forest more robust. This means having many different species of trees and other plants, fungi and insects, herbivores, and carnivores, and that the forest has trees of different ages. “Dense, uniform forests appear to be more vulnerable to extreme weather and damage than forests with a great diversity of trees and organisms. Greater biodiversity leads to increased resilience and reduced vulnerability of the forest,” says Kausrud. "Climate changes mean that many species will eventually be outside the areas where they can survive. They can weaken and die out, and biological diversity may be lost. At the same time, areas that were previously too cold for these species will now be warm enough. However, it is not a given that the species will manage to spread there and establish themselves on their own. On the other hand, this opens for management strategies that are worth exploring,” Kausrud concludes. VKM's scientific panel Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered Species is responsible for the report.

• Lieungh, Eva; Bjureke, Kristina; Evju, Marianne; Johaadien, Rukaya Sarah; Olsen, Siri Lie & Skarpaas, Olav [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). Presence-absence of plant habitat specialists in 15 patches of dry calcareous grassland. Biodiversity Data Journal. ISSN 1314-2836. 10. doi: 10.3897/BDJ.10.e94057. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background Dry grasslands on calcareous bedrock in warm climates around the Oslo Fjord are naturally fragmented biodiversity hotspots. This habitat geographically coincides with the most densely populated area of Norway. Many habitat specialists, along with the habitat itself, are red-listed because of land-use change, forest encroachment, and invasive species that cause habitat loss and greater isolation of remaining patches. To ensure effective conservation, data on species presences and absences are necessary to quantify states, changes, and extinction risks in specific populations and habitat patches. New information We present presence-absence data of 49 vascular plant species in 15 patches of dry calcareous grassland habitat, surveyed in 2009, 2019, and in 2020. The species are considered to be habitat specialists and, thus, unlikely to occur between the patches. sampling-event, vascular plants, specialist species, presence-absence data, calcareous grassland, habitat patch, GBIF

• Jacobsen, Rannveig Margrete; Birkemoe, Tone; Evju, Marianne; Skarpaas, Olav & Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne (2022). Veteran trees in decline: Stratified national monitoring of oaks in Norway. Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. 527. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120624. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Old veteran trees function as biodiversity hotspots in both forests and open landscapes, and protecting such trees is an important measure to halt loss of biodiversity. Nevertheless, the number of veteran trees continues to decline worldwide, although estimates of this decline mainly stem from geographically restricted case studies. In Norway, veteran oak trees have received special protection since 2011 through the Norwegian Biodiversity Act, however, there is a lack of knowledge on status and trends for these trees. A national monitoring program was started in 2012, using a random, stratified sampling procedure. We use the data from the baseline survey and the first monitoring revisit to estimate the total number as well as mortality trends of veteran oaks in Norway. Further, we assess recruitment potential (in the baseline survey) and changes in variables describing ecological state such as regrowth. The monitoring area covered the geographical distribution of oaks in Norway and was divided into > 200 000 plots of 500 × 500 m. A set of 500 monitoring plots were randomly selected from two strata: High probability plots (n = 100; plots with high probability of occurrence of veteran oaks), and Low probability plots (n = 400), using existing knowledge and databases. Plots were surveyed over a five year-period (2012–2016), with 20 HighProb-plots and 80 LowProb-plots each year. All veteran oaks that were observed during the baseline survey were revisited in 2019, three to seven years after they were initially registered. Tree absence and cause of death/ change of ecological status was recorded. We estimated a total of 138 100 veteran oaks in Norway based on the baseline survey, of which 25 000 could be denoted “top quality oaks”. Based on the revisit, we estimated a loss of 7 600 veteran trees, i.e., an annual mortality rate of 1.2%. Recruitment oaks were present in most plots with veteran oaks, but recruitment into the veteran oak category is slow and unlikely to balance out the mortality rate. More precise estimates of recruitment should be prioritized in future monitoring. The estimate of 138 000 veteran oaks far exceeds the appr. 10 000 trees registered in the national database, and clearly demonstrates the need for continued mapping and monitoring to improve the foundation for a knowledge-based land management. Further, this short-term monitoring demonstrates the decline of this biodiversity hotspot and pivotal source of ecosystem functions, despite increased protection in recent years. Our results and conclusions are relevant also for veteran trees of other species than oak. Quercus Ancient tree Tree inventory Monitoring Annual decline Biodiversity hotspot Heritage trees

• Burner, Ryan; Drag, Lukas; Stephan, Jörg G.; Birkemoe, Tone; Wetherbee, Ross & Muller, Jörg [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2022). Functional structure of European forest beetle communities is enhanced by rare species. Biological Conservation. ISSN 0006-3207. 267. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109491. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Biodiverse communities have been shown to sustain high levels of multifunctionality and thus a loss of species likely negatively impacts ecosystem functions. For most taxa, however, roles of individual species are poorly known. Rare species, often most likely to go extinct, may have unique traits and functional roles. Alternatively, rare species may be functionally redundant, such that their loss would not disrupt ecosystem functions. We quantified the functional role of rare species by using captures of wood-living (saproxylic) beetle species, combined with recent databases of morphological and ecological traits, from three regions in central and northern Europe. Using a rarity index based on species' local abundance, geographic range, and habitat breadth, we used local and regional species removal simulations to examine the contributions of both the rarest and the most common beetle species to three measures of community functional structure: functional richness, functional specialization, and functional originality. Both regionally and locally, all three measures declined more rapidly when rare species were removed than under common (or random) species removal scenarios. These consistent patterns across scales and among forest types give evidence that rare species provide unique functional contributions, and their loss may disproportionately impact ecosystem functions. This implies that conservation measures targeting rare and endangered species, such as preserving intact forests with dead wood and mature trees, can provide broader ecosystem-level benefits. Experimental research linking functional structure to ecosystem processes should be prioritized to increase understanding of the functional consequences of species loss and to develop more effective conservation strategies.

• Beigaitė, Rita; Tang, Hui; Bryn, Anders; Skarpaas, Olav; Stordal, Frode & Bjerke, Jarle W. [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2022). Identifying climate thresholds for dominant natural vegetation types at the global scale using machine learning: Average climate versus extremes. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013. 28(11), p. 3557–3579. doi: 10.1111/gcb.16110. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The global distribution of vegetation is largely determined by climatic conditions and feeds back into the climate system. To predict future vegetation changes in response to climate change, it is crucial to identify and understand key patterns and processes that couple vegetation and climate. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been widely applied to describe the distribution of vegetation types and their future dynamics in response to climate change. As a process- based approach, it partly relies on hard- coded climate thresholds to constrain the distribution of vegetation. What thresholds to implement in DGVMs and how to replace them with more processbased descriptions remain among the major challenges. In this study, we employ machine learning using decision trees to extract large- scale relationships between the global distribution of vegetation and climatic characteristics from remotely sensed vegetation and climate data. We analyse how the dominant vegetation types are linked to climate extremes as compared to seasonally or annually averaged climatic conditions. The results show that climate extremes allow us to describe the distribution and eco- climatological space of the vegetation types more accurately than the averaged climate variables, especially those types which occupy small territories in a relatively homogeneous ecological space. Future predicted vegetation changes using both climate extremes and averaged climate variables are less prominent than that predicted by averaged climate variables and are in better agreement with those of DGVMs, further indicating the importance of climate extremes in determining geographic distributions of different vegetation types. We found that the temperature thresholds for vegetation types (e.g. grass and open shrubland) in cold environments vary with moisture conditions. The coldest daily maximum temperature (extreme cold day) is particularly important for separating many different vegetation types. These findings highlight the need for a more explicit representation of the impacts of climate extremes on vegetation in DGVMs. climate extremes , climate thresholds , decision trees , DGVMs , machine learning , vegetation distribution

• Borgelt, Jan; Parada, Jorge Sicacha; Skarpaas, Olav & Verones, Francesca (2022). Native range estimates for red-listed vascular plants. Scientific Data. 9. doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01233-5. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Besides being central for understanding both global biodiversity patterns and associated anthropogenic impacts, species range maps are currently only available for a small subset of global biodiversity. Here, we provide a set of assembled spatial data for terrestrial vascular plants listed at the global IUCN red list. The dataset consists of pre-defined native regions for 47,675 species, density of available native occurrence records for 30,906 species, and standardized, large-scale Maxent predictions for 27,208 species, highlighting environmentally suitable areas within species’ native regions. The data was generated in an automated approach consisting of data scraping and filtering, variable selection, model calibration and model selection. Generated Maxent predictions were validated by comparing a subset to available expert-drawn range maps from IUCN (n = 4,257), as well as by qualitatively inspecting predictions for randomly selected species. We expect this data to serve as a substitute whenever expert-drawn species range maps are not available for conducting large-scale analyses on biodiversity patterns and associated anthropogenic impacts.

• Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Vandvik, Vigdis; Flø, Daniel; Geange, Sonya Rita; Hegland, Stein Joar & Hermansen, Jo Skeie [Show all 26 contributors for this article] (2022). Impacts of climate change on the boreal forest ecosystem. Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Alien Organisms and Trade in Endangered species (CITES) of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment. VKM Report. 2022(15). Full text in Research Archive
• Burner, Ryan C.; Stephan, Jörg G.; Drag, Lukas; Birkemoe, Tone; Muller, Jörg & Snäll, Tord [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2021). Traits mediate niches and co-occurrences of forest beetles in ways that differ among bioclimatic regions. Journal of Biogeography. ISSN 0305-0270. 48(12), p. 3145–3157. doi: 10.1111/jbi.14272. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Aim The aim of this study was to investigate the role of traits in beetle community assembly and test for consistency in these effects among several bioclimatic regions. We asked (1) whether traits predicted species’ responses to environmental gradients (i.e. their niches), (2) whether these same traits could predict co-occurrence patterns and (3) how consistent were niches and the role of traits among study regions. Location Boreal forests in Norway and Finland, temperate forests in Germany. Taxon Wood-living (saproxylic) beetles. Methods We compiled capture records of 468 wood-living beetle species from the three regions, along with nine morphological and ecological species traits. Eight climatic and forest covariates were also collected. We used Bayesian hierarchical joint species distribution models to estimate the influence of traits and phylogeny on species’ niches. We also tested for correlations between species associations and trait similarity. Finally, we compared species niches and the effects of traits among study regions. Results Traits explained some of the variability in species’ niches, but their effects differed among study regions. However, substantial phylogenetic signal in species niches implies that unmeasured but phylogenetically structured traits have a stronger effect. Degree of trait similarity was correlated with species associations but depended idiosyncratically on the trait and region. Species niches were much more consistent—widespread taxa often responded similarly to an environmental gradient in each region. Main conclusions The inconsistent effects of traits among regions limit their current use in understanding beetle community assembly. Phylogenetic signal in niches, however, implies that better predictive traits can eventually be identified. Consistency of species niches among regions means niches may remain relatively stable under future climate and land use changes; this lends credibility to predictive distribution models based on future climate projections but may imply that species’ scope for short-term adaptation is limited.

• Burner, Ryan; Birkemoe, Tone; Stephan, Jörg G.; Drag, Lukas; Müller, Jörg & Ovaskainen, Otso [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2021). Choosy beetles: How host trees and southern boreal forest naturalness may determine dead wood beetle communities. Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. 487. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119023. Full text in Research Archive
• Villellas, Jesus; Ehrlén, Johan; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Csergö, Anna Mária; Garcia, Maria B. & Laine, Anna- Liisa [Show all 52 contributors for this article] (2021). Phenotypic plasticity masks range- wide genetic differentiation for vegetative but not reproductive traits in a short- lived plant. Ecology Letters. ISSN 1461-023X. 24(11), p. 1–16. doi: 10.1111/ele.13858. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short- lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short- term perturbations. Combining a multi- treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short- lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait– environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field- observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness.

• Wetherbee, Ross Thompson; Birkemoe, Tone; Skarpaas, Olav & Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne (2020). Hollow oaks and beetle functional diversity: Significance of surroundings extends beyond taxonomy. Ecology and Evolution. 10(2), p. 819–831. doi: 10.1002/ece3.5940. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Veteran hollow oaks (Quercus spp.) are keystone structures hosting high insect diversity but are declining in numbers due to intensification of land use and the abandonment of traditional management. The loss of this vital habitat is resulting in a reduction of biodiversity, and this likely has consequences for ecosystem functioning, especially if functional diversity is reduced. A considerable amount of research has been done on predictors of beetle taxonomic diversity in veteran oaks, but predictors of functional diversity have remained largely unexplored. The aim of this study was to establish whether the features and surroundings of veteran oaks are related to functional diversity within three functional groups of beetles (decomposers, predators, and flower visitors) and determine whether species richness and functional diversity within the groups are dependent on the same predictors. Sampling was carried out intermittently between 2004 and 2011 on 61 veteran oaks in Southern Norway. Of the 876 beetle species that were collected, 359 were determined to be decomposers, 284 were predators, and 85 were flower visitors. Species richness and functional diversity in all groups were consistently higher in traps mounted on veteran oaks in forests than in open landscapes. However, additional predictors differed between groups, and for species richness and functional diversity. Decomposer species richness responded to tree vitality, while functional diversity responded to habitat connectivity, predator species richness responded to regrowth of shrubs while functional diversity responded to tree circumference, and flower visitor richness and functional diversity did not respond to any additional predictors. Previous studies have found that the features and surroundings of veteran oaks are important for conservation of taxonomic diversity, and the results from this study indicate that they are also important for functional diversity within multiple functional groups.

• Jacobsen, Rannveig Margrete; Burner, Ryan C.; Olsen, Siri Lie; Skarpaas, Olav & Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne (2020). Near-natural forests harbor richer saproxylic beetle communities than those in intensively managed forests. Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. 466. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118124. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Globally, boreal forests cover 33 percent of Earth's forested area, constitute the largest terrestrial carbon source, and house an important biodiversity of forest-dependent species, many of which are saproxylic taxa reliant on a wide variety of dead wood. This dead wood is most prevalent in old-growth forest, yet intensive management means that little oldgrowth is left, and there maining forests rarely attain the necessary age and structure to resemble these original forests. There is increasing recognition, however, that forests that have not been subjected to modern, stand-replacing harvest methods (like clear-cutting), and in which management activities are nolonger occurring, may be able to provide habitat similar to old-growth forest for many species (oldermean age, higher dead wood volumes, and more age-class heterogeneity). These are called ‘near-natural’ forests. We use linear mixed models and redundancy analysis (RDA) to compare beetle species richness and community composition using a large, mixed dataset, containing more than one third of all beetle species known from Norway, from window trap records in three types of forest: intensively managed mature stands, recent clear-cuts,and‘near-naturalforests’. Even though location, study substrate and other sampling details vary substantially between sites, the signal from management still comes out as a significant factor explaining the patterns on beetle diversity. We find that species richness of saproxylic, natural-forest indicator, and red-listed beetle species is higher in both near-natural forests and recent clear-cuts than in managed mature forests. Community compositional so differs significantly between the three forest types,and these differences are correlated with forest age and volume at the landscape (1km radius) level. These findings provide support for the idea that near-natural forests provide habitats that are distinct from those in managed forests and which are important for species of conservation concern. Clear-cuts briefly harbor some of these same species, probably due to the sun-exposed coarse woody debris (CWD) that is available immediately after felling, but this effect is transient. Conservation of existing near-natural forests, many of which are currently without legal protection, should therefore be prioritized.

• Vandvik, Vigdis; Skarpaas, Olav; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J.; Halbritter, Aud Helen & Goldberg, Deborah E (2020). Biotic rescaling reveals importance of species interactions for variation in biodiversity responses to climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS). ISSN 0027-8424. 117(37), p. 22858–22865. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2003377117. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Generality in understanding biodiversity responses to climate change has been hampered by substantial variation in the rates and even directions of response to a given change in climate. We propose that such context dependencies can be clarified by rescaling climate gradients in terms of the underlying biological processes, with biotic interactions as a particularly important process. We tested this rescaling approach in a replicated field experiment where entire montane grassland communities were transplanted in the direction of expected temperature and/or precipitation change. In line with earlier work, we found considerable variation across sites in community dynamics in response to climate change. However, these complex context dependencies could be substantially reduced or eliminated by rescaling climate drivers in terms of proxies of plant−plant interactions. Specifically, bryophytes limited colonization by new species into local communities, whereas the cover of those colonists, along with bryophytes, were the primary drivers of local extinctions. These specific interactions are relatively understudied, suggesting important directions for future work in similar systems. More generally, the success of our approach in explaining and simplifying landscape-level variation in climate change responses suggests that developing and testing proxies for relevant underlying processes could be a fruitful direction for building more general models of biodiversity response to climate change. colonization | extinction | context dependency | temperature |precipitation

• Halvorsen, Rune; Skarpaas, Olav; Bryn, Anders; Bratli, Harald; Erikstad, Lars & Simensen, Trond [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2020). Towards a systematics of ecodiversity: the Ecosyst framework. Global Ecology and Biogeography. ISSN 1466-822X. 29(11), p. 1887–1906. doi: 10.1111/geb.13164. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Background Although a standard taxonomy of organisms has existed for nearly 300 years, no consensus has yet been reached on principles for systematization of ecological diversity (i.e., the co‐ordinated variation of abiotic and biotic components of natural diversity). In a rapidly changing world, where nature is under constant pressure, standardized terms and methods for characterization of ecological diversity are urgently needed (e.g., to enhance precision and credibility of global change assessments). Aim The aim is to present the EcoSyst framework, a set of general principles and methods for systematization of natural diversity that simultaneously addresses biotic and abiotic variation, and to discuss perspectives opened by this framework. Innovation EcoSyst provides a framework for systematizing natural variation in a consistent manner across different levels of organization. At each ecodiversity level, EcoSyst principles can be used to establish: (a) an extensive attribute system with descriptive variables that cover all relevant sources of variation; (b) a hierarchical‐type system; and (c) a set of guidelines for land‐cover mapping that is consistent across spatial scales. EcoSyst type systems can be conceptualized as multidimensional models, by which a key characteristic (the response) is related to variation in one or more key sources of variation (predictors). EcoSyst type hierarchies are developed by a gradient‐based iterative procedure, by which the “ecodiversity distance” (i.e., the extent to which the key characteristic differs between adjacent candidate types) is standardized and the ecological processes behind observed patterns are explicitly taken into account. Application We present “Nature in Norway” (NiN), an implementation of the EcoSyst framework for Norway for the ecosystem and landscape levels of ecodiversity. Examples of applications to research and management are given. Conclusion The EcoSyst framework provides a theoretical platform, principles and methods that can complement and enhance initiatives towards a global‐scale systematics of ecodiversity. iodiversity complex gradient continuum theory ecodiversity ecosystem geodiversity gradient landscape mapping typology

• Sandvik, Hanno; Hilmo, Olga; Finstad, Anders Gravbrøt; Hegre, Hanne; Moen, Toril Loennechen & Rafoss, Trond [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2019). Generic ecological impact assessment of alien species (GEIAA): the third generation of assessments in Norway. Biological Invasions. ISSN 1387-3547. 21(9), p. 2803–2810. doi: 10.1007/s10530-019-02033-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Generic Ecological Impact Assessment of Alien Species (GEIAA) is described. It comprises a set of criteria and an assessment procedure. The set of criteria consists of three criteria that quantify invasion potential, and six criteria that capture the ecological effects of alien species. The threshold values for all criteria are numerically defined, rendering the set of criteria fully quantitative. Genericity is ensured by using criteria that are applicable to all taxonomic groups and in all habitats. In being generic, quantitative, ecological and normatively neutral, the criteria were inspired by the international Red List criteria. Capturing both invasion potential and effect, GEIAA can be regarded as a full ecological impact assessment. The assessment procedure contains guidelines on documentation, the collection of background information, the handling of uncertainty, and quality assurance. GEIAA represents the second revision, and thus the third generation, of assessment methodology in Norway. It has recently been used to carry out more than 2500 impact assessments of alien species in Norway and Sweden.

• Töpper, Joachim Paul; Meineri, Eric Pierre F; Olsen, Siri Lie; Rydgren, Knut; Skarpaas, Olav & Vandvik, Vigdis (2018). The devil is in the detail: nonadditive and context-dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation. Plant demography in a warmer & wetter climate. Global Change Biology. ISSN 1354-1013. 24(10), p. 4657–4666. doi: 10.1111/gcb.14336. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In climate‐change ecology, simplistic research approaches may yield unrealistically simplistic answers to often more complicated problems. In particular, the complexity of vegetation responses to global climate change begs a better understanding of the impacts of concomitant changes in several climatic drivers, how these impacts vary across different climatic contexts, and of the demographic processes underlying population changes. Using a replicated, factorial, whole‐community transplant experiment, we investigate regional variation in demographic responses of plant populations to increased temperature and/or precipitation. Across four perennial forb species and twelve sites, we found strong responses to both temperature and precipitation change. Changes in population growth rates were mainly due to changes in survival and clonality. In three of the four study species, the combined increase in temperature and precipitation reflected non‐additive, antagonistic interactions of the single climatic changes for population growth rate and survival, while the interactions were additive and synergistic for clonality. This disparity affects the persistence of genotypes, but also suggests that the mechanisms behind the responses of the vital rates differ. In addition, survival effects varied systematically with climatic context, with wetter and warmer+wetter transplants showing less positive or more negative responses at warmer sites. The detailed demographic approach yields important mechanistic insights into how concomitant changes in temperature and precipitation affect plants, which makes our results generalizable beyond the four study species. Our comprehensive study design illustrates the power of replicated field experiments in disentangling the complex relationships and patterns that govern climate change impacts across real‐world species and landscapes.

• Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Skarpaas, Olav; Blumentrath, Stefan; Birkemoe, Tone & Evju, Marianne (2017). Habitat connectivity affects specialist species richness more than generalists in veteran trees. Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. 403, p. 96–102. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.08.003. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Intensified human land use continues to increase habitat loss and fragmentation, and leads to a homogenization of biodiversity. Specialized species with narrow niches seem to be declining more rapidly than generalist species. Veteran trees offer an excellent model system for testing the responses of habitat specialists vs. generalists in a changing environment, as they host a rich fauna of associated insects, with different degrees of strict habitat affinity. In this study, we use an extensive dataset of more than 22 000 wood-living beetles collected from 62 veteran oaks across Southern Norway, combined with a full-cover map predicting the occurrence of similar oaks in the surrounding landscape. We calculate three different connectivity measures, at eight different scales up to 25 km radius, and compare the response to patch size and patch connectivity for the specialist beetles in the veteran oak community, with that of the remaining beetle species in the community. We investigate these responses in oaks in two different surroundings; forests and parks. Our overall aim is to test whether habitat specialists and generalists respond differently to habitat patch connectivity, and if so, if differences in species traits or close surroundings can explain the response. We found that the specialists showed a positive response to habitat amount on a small scale (0.5 km), and this effect of small-scale connectivity was the only common factor explaining a high species richness of specialists in all models, independent of park or forest surroundings. For generalists, there was no or only a weak response to connectivity, and only at the largest scale (25 km) tested. The differences in response to habitat connectivity between specialists and generalists in veteran oaks can partly be explained by differences in traits, as the specialists were found to have larger body sizes, and feed on larger and more decayed dead wood material. These are all traits that have been related to increased sensitivity to forest fragmentation in earlier studies. The size and vitality of the oak, as well as the openness around it, also influenced the species richness, with different patterns between specialists and generalists and between the two types of oak surroundings. We conclude that increasing biotic homogenization is likely to take place with further fragmentation and loss of veteran trees, and specialist species will be the major group affected. Connectivity Coleoptera Veteran trees Quercus spp. Spatial scale Specialization

View all works in NVA

• Edvardsen, Anette; Halvorsen, Rune; Bratli, Harald; Bryn, Anders; Dervo, Børre Kind & Erikstad, Lars [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2024). Natur i Norge. Variasjon satt i system. Universitetsforlaget. ISBN 9788215069869. 434 p. Full text in Research Archive

View all works in NVA

• Skarpaas, Olav (2026). Trees and forest dynamics: present, past and future. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2026). Skog i NiN: Hva skjuler seg bak skogmaska? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2026). BioM: Methods for knowledge-based biodiversity monitoring and management under uncertainty. Full text in Research Archive
• Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Hauglin, Marius; Asplund, Ulrika Jansson; Skarpaas, Olav; Storaunet, Ken Olaf & Ørka, Hans Ole (2025). Hvor kan vi finne naturskogen? Forskersonen.no. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  For å lage heldekkende kart over naturskogen, er det nødvendig med en konkret beskrivelse av hvordan vi skal måle strukturene som er karakteristiske for slik skog. Dette er hvordan vi løste det.

• Naas, Adam Eindride; Simensen, Trond; Keetz, Lasse Torben; Tjessem, Ingrid Vesterdal; Bryn, Anders & Halvorsen, Rune [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2025). Ecosystem distribution models to support area management – a case study from Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2025). Towards predictive dynamic biogeography: three paths and some intersections. Full text in Research Archive
• Bryn, Anders; Halvorsen, Rune; Horvath, Peter; Keetz, Lasse Torben; Mienna, Ida Marielle & Simensen, Trond [Show all 12 contributors for this article] (2025). Ecosystem distribution models to support area management - a case study from Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2025). Connecting ecosystem accounting and ecology: A critical view on the implementation of SEEA-EA in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Hauglin, Marius; Ørka, Hans Ole; Storaunet, Ken Olaf; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Skarpaas, Olav & Jansson, Ulrika (2025). Naturskogkart. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2024). Kartlegging og modellering av arters og økosystemers utbredelse: hvordan integrere kunnskap om naturmangfold i naturregnskap? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2024). Towards dynamic biogeography: bridging bio- and geoscience. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2024). Viktige funn fra skogdynamikkprosjektet – Hva bør vi sikre i et naturskogskart? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2024). Naturmangfold: forskning og studier ved Geo-økologisk forskningsgruppe (GEco), NHM, UiO. Full text in Research Archive
• Mienna, Ida Marielle; Vollering, Julien & Skarpaas, Olav (2023). Predicting current and future habitat suitability for alien vascular plants in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Naas, Adam Eindride; Halvorsen, Rune; Horvath, Peter; Wollan, Anders Kvalvåg; Bratli, Harald & Brynildsrud, Katrine Marie [Show all 16 contributors for this article] (2023). How consistent are NiN field mappers? Full text in Research Archive
• Storaunet, Ken Olaf; Rolstad, Jørund; Skarpaas, Olav & Halvorsen, Rune (2023). Hva er naturlig dynamikk i skoglandskapet? Norsk Skogbruk. ISSN 0029-2087. p. 52–54. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2023). Hvor er det blitt av naturskogen? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2023). Distribution modelling and related research in GEco and MaNa at NHM. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2023). Om skogens dynamikk. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2023). Developments towards NiN 3.0 with a focus on forest. Full text in Research Archive
• Jacobsen, Rannveig Margrete Vigdisdatter; Evju, Marianne; Skarpaas, Olav; Birkemoe, Tone & Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne (2023). Vi mister omtrent 1500 hule eiker hvert år. Forskersonen.no. Full text in Research Archive
• Lieungh, Eva; Yilmaz, Yeliz; Tang, Hui; Keetz, Lasse Torben; Olsen, Siri Lie & Gya, Ragnhild [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2023). Complementary field and modelling experiments: alpine vegetation under climate warming. Full text in Research Archive
• Malicki, Brunon; Morgado, Luis; Nordén, Jenni; Bjorbækmo, Marit Frederikke Markussen; Skarpaas, Olav & Kjønaas, O. Janne [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2022). Factors driving the diversity of eukaryotic microorganisms in boreal forest soils. Full text in Research Archive
• Halvorsen, Rune; Brenn, Odd Arne; Framstad, Erik; Gaarder, Geir; Gjerde, Ivar & Schei, Fride Høistad [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2022). Framlegg til revidert beskrivelse av skogdynamikk i NiN. In Skarpaas, Olav & Halvorsen, Rune (Ed.), Skogens dynamikk, struktur og artsmangfold - bakgrunnskunnskap for en ny beskrivelse av skogbestandsdynamikk i NiN. Naturhistorisk museum, UiO. ISSN 9788279701415. p. 85–115. Full text in Research Archive
• Storaunet, Ken Olaf & Skarpaas, Olav (2022). Naturskogsdynamikk, skogstruktur og død ved. In Skarpaas, Olav & Halvorsen, Rune (Ed.), Skogens dynamikk, struktur og artsmangfold - bakgrunnskunnskap for en ny beskrivelse av skogbestandsdynamikk i NiN. Naturhistorisk museum, UiO. ISSN 9788279701415. p. 21–41. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Son, Thijs Christiaan van; Halvorsen, Rune & Storaunet, Ken Olaf (2022). Samvariasjon mellom strukturvariabler i norsk skog – en analyse basert på Landsskogtakseringens data. In Skarpaas, Olav & Halvorsen, Rune (Ed.), Skogens dynamikk, struktur og artsmangfold - bakgrunnskunnskap for en ny beskrivelse av skogbestandsdynamikk i NiN. Naturhistorisk museum, UiO. ISSN 9788279701415. p. 58–68. Full text in Research Archive
• Evju, Marianne; Olsen, Siri Lie; Skarpaas, Olav; Stabbetorp, Odd Egil; Vassvik, Linn & Grainger, Matthew (2021). Overvåking av dragehode – resultater 2021. NINA fakta. ISSN 1891-2397. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2021). Hva er en naturlig skog? blogg.forskning.no- søkelys på skogplantning. Full text in Research Archive
• Keetz, Lasse Torben; Bryn, Anders; Horvath, Peter; Skarpaas, Olav; Tallaksen, Lena M. & Zliobaite, Indre (2021). Using machine learning to model the distribution of Vegetation Types across Norway. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2021). Klimaendringer og vegetasjon i vinterlandet. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2021). Urban plant diversity in Oslo: mapping and modelling. Full text in Research Archive
• Fišer, Živa; Aronne, Giovanna; Aavik, Tsipe; Akin, Meleksen; Alizoti, Paraskevi & Aravanopoulos, Filippos [Show all 51 contributors for this article] (2021). ConservePlants: An integrated approach to conservation of threatened plants for the 21st Century. Research Ideas and Outcomes (RIO). 7. doi: 10.3897/rio.7.e62810. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Even though plants represent an essential part of our lives offering exploitational, supporting and cultural services, we know very little about the biology of the rarest and most threatened plant species, and even less about their conservation status. Rapid changes in the environment and climate, today more pronounced than ever, affect their fitness and distribution causing rapid species declines, sometimes even before they had been discovered. Despite the high goals set by conservationists to protect native plants from further degradation and extinction, the initiatives for the conservation of threatened species in Europe are scattered and have not yielded the desired results. The main aim of this Action is to improve plant conservation in Europe through the establishment of a network of scientists and other stakeholders who deal with different aspects of plant conservation, from plant taxonomy, ecology, conservation genetics, conservation physiology and reproductive biology to protected area's managers, not forgetting social scientists, who are crucial when dealing with the general public. in situ plant conservation, ex situ plant conservation, conservation genetics, red lists of threatened plant species, citizen science

• Olsen, Siri Lie; Hamre, Liv Norunn; Skarpaas, Olav & Töpper, Joachim Paul (2020). Fremmede arter får superkrefter. Plantepressa: blogginnlegg på forskning.no av botanikere ved Norsk institutt for naturforskning. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2019). Using citizen science data for distribution modelling: A species ensemble model with correction for sampling effort. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2019). Urban biodiversity: Measurement and modelling challenges for a policy-relevant ecology. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Töpper, Joachim Paul; Alexander, Jake M.; Skarpaas, Olav; Olsen, Siri Lie & Klanderud, Kari [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2019). INCLINE: Indirect climate change impacts on alpine plant communities. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2019). Improving CS-based species distribution models in the face of sampling bias. Full text in Research Archive
• Bryn, Anders & Skarpaas, Olav (2019). Folkeforskning på tregrenser. Museumsnytt. ISSN 0027-4186. p. 46–47. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne & Olsen, Siri Lie (2019). Biodiversity responses to local and landscape-level forest structures and dynamics in northern European forests. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Eriksen, Eva Lieungh & Bryn, Anders (2019). Klimaforskning ved NHM. Full text in Research Archive
• Morgado, Luis Neves; Mundra, Sunil; Kjønaas, Janne; Nybakken, L; Skarpaas, Olav & Nordén, Björn [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). Space for time: Soil fungal communities across a boreal forest age gradient. 18th Congress of European Mycologists, Warzaw/Bialowieza, Poland 16-21 September 2019. Full text in Research Archive
• Töpper, Joachim Paul; Meineri, Eric Pierre F; Olsen, Siri Lie; Rydgren, Knut; Skarpaas, Olav & Vandvik, Vigdis (2018). The devil is in the detail: non-additive and context- dependent plant population responses to increasing temperature and precipitation. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Althuizen, Inge; Goldberg, Deborah E; Haugum, Siri Vatsø; Jaroszynska, Francesca Orinda Holl & Klanderud, Kari [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2018). Using experimental macroecology to assess climate change impacts on plants. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Althuizen, Inge; Goldberg, Deborah E; Haugum, Siri Vatsø; Jaroszynska, Francesca Orinda Holl & Klanderud, Kari [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2018). Ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change - lessons from terrestrial ecology? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2018). Biodiversity accounting for Oslo: quantifying plant and ecosystem diversity. Full text in Research Archive
• Olsen, Siri Lie; Åström, Jens; Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine; Skarpaas, Olav; Blaalid, Rakel & Often, Anders [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2018). Invasive alien plant species in Norway: hotspots for introduction, current distribution, mapping and management. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2018). Bruk av satellittkart for biodiversitetsindikatorer: Kan biodiversitet måles med satellitt? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2018). How the wood moves. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Bryn, Anders; Torma, Michal; Horvath, Peter & Volden, Inger Kristine (2018). Folkeforskning med mobil-app: tregrenser og naturmangfold. Full text in Research Archive
• Olsen, Siri Lie; Evju, Marianne; Skarpaas, Olav & Stabbetorp, Odd Egil (2018). Hva gjør tørkesommeren med naturmangfoldet? Plantepressa: blogginnlegg på forskning.no av botanikere ved Norsk institutt for naturforskning. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Töpper, Joachim Paul; Nilsen, Erlend Birkeland & Åström, Jens (2018). Dataflyt og modellering av indikatorer for naturindeksen - planter. Full text in Research Archive
• Nilsen, Erlend Birkeland; Mattisson, Jenny; Skarpaas, Olav; Bowler, Diana Elizabeth & Kvasnes, Mikkel Andreas (2018). Modellering av bestandsdata for fugl. Full text in Research Archive
• Bratli, Harald & Skarpaas, Olav (2017). God økologisk tilstand i hvert økosystem. Naturlig åpne områder under skoggrensa. In Nybø, Signe & Evju, Marianne (Ed.), Fagsystem for fastsetting av god økologisk tilstand. Forslag fra et ekspertråd. Ekspertrådet for økologisk tilstand. ISSN 9788269086010. p. 136–141. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Althuizen, Inge; Goldberg, Deborah E; Haugum, Siri Vatsø; Jaroszynska, Francesca Orinda Holl & Klanderud, Kari [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2017). Integrating experimental and gradient approaches to study CC impacts on plants. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Althuizen, Inge; Jaroszynska, Francesca Orinda Holl; Meineri, Eric Pierre F; Olsen, Siri Lie & Töpper, Joachim Paul [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2017). Konsekvenser av klimaendringer: Hva skjer når fjellplanter flyttes til et varmere og våtere klima? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Integrerte modeller og dataflyt for automatisering og forbedring av romlig oppløsning og geografisk dekning av naturindeksen. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Understanding and predicting the distribution and dynamics of Nature’s diversity: Towards mechanistic dynamic distribution models. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Å skrive en (NiN-)artikkel: hvordan destillere og presentere essensen av tusen tanker? Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Biodiversity mapping and citizen science in Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Biodiversity surveying in Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Vandvik, Vigdis; Klanderud, Kari; Skarpaas, Olav; Telford, Richard & Töpper, Joachim Paul (2017). Integrating experimental and gradient approaches to assess climate change impacts on plants populations and communities. Full text in Research Archive
• Evju, Marianne; Bratli, Harald & Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Naturlig åpne områder under skoggrensa. Full text in Research Archive
• Olsen, Siri Lie; Skarpaas, Olav; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Bendiksen, Egil; Nordén, Björn & Stabbetorp, Odd Egil [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2017). Local and landscape effects of stand age on biodiversity in productive boreal forests. Full text in Research Archive
• Evju, Marianne; Olsen, Siri Lie & Skarpaas, Olav (2017). Overvåking av dragehode - en pilotstudie. NINA fakta. ISSN 1891-2397. Full text in Research Archive
• Skarpaas, Olav; Bratli, Harald; Roos, Ruben Erik; Løkken, Jørn Olav & Rennemo, Martin (2026). Prevalence of Phedimus spurius in open shallow calcareous ground An investigation of an invasive plant species in biodiverse-rich areas, and measures of removal for ecosystem restoration. Universitetet i Oslo. Full text in Research Archive
• Hauglin, Marius; Asplund, Ulrika Jansson; Jutras-Perreault, Marie-Claude; Skarpaas, Olav; Strimbu, Victor & Storaunet, Ken Olaf [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2025). Naturskogkart – første versjon. Bakgrunn og metodikk. NIBIO. ISSN 9788217038436. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Første versjon av tre nasjonale kartlag over naturskog, og metodikken for disse kartlagene er dokumentert i denne rapporten. Prosjektet har også vurdert hvordan NiN3.0-variablene fra skogdynamikkprosjektet kan utledes ved hjelp av heldekkende kart som allerede eksisterer eller som kan utvikles innen rimelig tid. Tilgjengelige datasett, som fjernmålingsdata, SR16 og feltdata fra Landsskogtakseringen ble brukt sammen med maskinlæringsmodeller for å lage følgende tre landsdekkende rasterkartlag: 1) Et binært naturskogkart som viser skog med predikert alder >84 år, 2) et kart med predikert sannsynlighet for naturskog, og 3) et kart som viser predikert grad av naturskogsnærhet. En evaluering av det binære naturskogkartet mot feltflatene i Landsskogtakseringen hadde en samlet nøyaktighet på 76 %. Validering av modellen for naturskogsannsynlighet viste en samlet nøyaktighet på 78 % Validering av modell for naturskogsnærhet ga samlet nøyaktighet på 54 %. Validering av modeller for prediksjon av naturskogsannsynlighet og naturskogsnærhet viser begge at disse gir best prediksjoner i grandominert skog. Prosjektet ble gjennomført med knappe tidsrammer, og de produserte kartene må betraktes som førsteversjoner. En anbefaling fra prosjektet var at metodikken og kartene bør utvikles videre, og en videreføring er allerede i gang. Rapportens referanse: Hauglin, M.,

• Evju, Marianne; Roos, Ruben Erik; Skarpaas, Olav & Olsen, Siri Lie (2024). Overvåking av dragehode Dracocephalum ruyschiana. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242653291. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Rapporten er tilgjengelig fredag 22. november 2024

• Evju, Marianne; Grainger, Matthew; Jansson, Ulrika; Olsen, Siri Lie; Roos, Ruben Erik & Skarpaas, Olav [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2024). Overvåking av dragehode Dracocephalum ruyschiana. Årsrapport 2023. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242652492. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dragehode (Dracocephalum ruyschiana) er en prioritert art iht. naturmangfoldloven. Dragehode er en tørketålende, lyselskende og noe kalkrevende planteart som i Norge er begrenset til Østlandet. I 2016 utarbeidet NINA et overvåkingsopplegg med formål å få oversikt over status og utvikling over tid for dragehodepopulasjoner i Norge. Overvåking ble startet opp i 2017 og er gradvis utvidet til i 2020 å omfatte 25 populasjoner i tre regioner: Oslofjordområdet, Ringerike og Hadeland, i de to naturtypene åpen grunnlendt kalkmark og seminaturlig eng. På hver lokalitet registreres antall individer av dragehode fordelt på fertile individer, vegetative individer og småplanter, i et sett permanente overvåkingsruter på 1 m2. Andre overvåkingsindikatorer omfatter vegetasjonshøyde, dekning av ulike vegetasjonssjikt, dekning av rødlistearter, fremmede arter og vedplanter. I tillegg registreres forekomst/fravær av dragehode i et sett ruter lagt ut systematisk langs transekter innenfor lokaliteten (forekomstruter). I 2023 ble overvåkingsopplegget endret. Overvåking som beskrevet over, ble beholdt på to lokaliteter per region, og det ble i tillegg etablert overvåking på tre nye lokaliteter, en i hver av de tre regionene Gudbrandsdalen, Valdres og Mjøsa. Forenklet overvåking, dvs. bare registrering av forekomst/fravær langs systematisk utlagte transekter, ble gjennomført på fire lokaliteter per region, totalt 24 lokaliteter. Målsetningen med endringen av overvåkingsopplegget er å inkludere 20 lokaliteter per region med forenklet overvåking, samt å gjennomføre detaljert overvåking på to lokaliteter per region årlig, men uten å øke årlige budsjetter betydelig. Forsommeren 2023 var særdeles varm og tørr, og resultatene kan tyde på at effektene av tørken var størst i Osloregionen; flere av populasjonene der viste en tydelig nedgang fra 2022. Etter tørkesommeren 2018 så vi imidlertid en økning i småplanter i mange av populasjonene året etter, noe som kan bety at nedgangen i 2023 er midlertidig. Populasjonene på Ringerike og Hadeland så i mindre grad ut til å være rammet av tørken i 2023. Det ble gjennomført en rekke analyser av innsamlede data for å undersøke status og utvikling, og hvordan forenklet overvåking kan gi forvaltningsrelevante resultater. Resultatene viser at datainnsamling med kun forekomstruter langs transekter kan bidra med informasjon om hvorvidt populasjonene er i oppgang, stabile eller i nedgang, men det er vanskelig å anslå hvor store endringene i populasjonene er. For at overvåkingen skal forvaltningsnyttig informasjon om utviklingen, på lokalitets- eller regionsnivå, må overvåking gjennomføres årlig på alle lokaliteter. Detaljert overvåking med overvåkingsruter er nødvendig for å forstå mekanismene som styrer variasjonen i dragehodepopulasjonene. Datasettet fra overvåkingen i perioden 2017-2023 har potensial for flere og bedre analyser for å forstå disse mekanismene. Vi er usikre på om det endrete overvåkingsdesignet vil bidra til å gi forvaltningen presis og god kunnskap om status og utvikling for dragehode og lanserer fire alternativer som forvaltningen kan vurdere: Alternativ 1: Fortsette som planlagt og håpe at dataene på sikt vil være verdifulle for forvaltningen. Alternativ 2: Øke budsjettene betydelig og videreføre detaljert årlig overvåking på flere lokaliteter i hver region. Alternativ 3: Øke budsjettet noe, og som et minimum samle data årlig med forenklet design, men kanskje fra færre lokaliteter. Alternativ 4: Avvikle overvåkingen og bruke midlene til målrettede skjøtselseksperimenter og til å skreddersy tiltak på lokaliteter med skjøtselsbehov. Det er ikke gitt at det er mulig å skaffe statistisk holdbare resultater for status og utvikling for dragehode innenfor dagens budsjetter, og da kan det være bedre å bruke ressursene på annen kunnskapsinnhenting og aktiv forvaltning av arten.

• Skarpaas, Olav & Halvorsen, Rune (2022). Skogens dynamikk, struktur og artsmangfold - bakgrunnskunnskap for en ny beskrivelse av skogbestandsdynamikk i NiN. Naturhistorisk museum, UiO. ISSN 9788279701415. Full text in Research Archive
• Evju, Marianne; Grainger, Matthew; Olsen, Siri Lie; Roos, Ruben Erik; Skarpaas, Olav & Stabbetorp, Odd Egil (2022). Overvåking av dragehode Dracocephalum ruyschiana i 2022. Resultater og forslag til veien videre. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242650542. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Overvåking, populasjoner, prioritert art, skjøtsel

• Kausrud, Kyrre; Vandvik, Vigdis; Flø, Daniel; Geange, Sonya Rita; Hegland, Stein Joar & Hermansen, Jo Skeie [Show all 26 contributors for this article] (2022). Klimaendringer og virkninger på hovedøkosystem skog. VKM. ISSN 9788282593908. Full text in Research Archive
• Evju, Marianne; Olsen, Siri Lie; Skarpaas, Olav & Stabbetorp, Odd Egil (2021). Overvåking av dragehode Dracocephalum ruyschiana.Beskrivelse av metodikk og resultater 2017‒2020. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242647542. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Dragehode Dracocephalum ruyschiana er en prioritert art iht. naturmangfoldloven. Dragehode er en tørketålende, lyselskende og noe kalkrevende planteart som i Norge er begrenset til Østlandet. I 2016 utarbeidet NINA et overvåkingsopplegg med formål å få oversikt over status og utvikling over tid for dragehode-populasjoner i Norge. Overvåking ble startet opp i 2017 og er gradvis utvidet til i 2020 å omfatte 25 populasjoner i Oslofjordområdet, Ringerike og Hadeland, i de to naturtypene åpen grunnlendt kalkmark og semi-naturlig eng. På hver lokalitet registreres antallet individer av dragehode fordelt på fertile individer, vegetative individer og småplanter, i et sett permanente overvåkingsruter på 1 m2. Andre overvåkingsindikatorer omfatter vegetasjonshøyde, dekning av ulike vegetasjonssjikt, dekning av rødlistearter, fremmede arter og vedplanter. I tillegg registreres forekomst/fravær av dragehode i et sett ruter lagt ut systematisk langs transekter innenfor lokaliteten. Innsamlede data er brukt til å estimere populasjonsstørrelser og populasjonsvekstrater i perioden 2017‒2020 og undersøke hvordan disse varierer med region, naturtype og skjøtsel. Populasjonene i Oslofjordområdet er generelt mye større enn på Ringerike og Hadeland. Det er variasjoner i populasjonsstørrelser mellom år. På åpen grunnlendt kalkmark, som dominerer rundt Oslofjorden, er det for flere lokaliteter en svak nedadgående utvikling i populasjonsstørrelse, drevet særlig av antall vegetative planter og småplanter. På semi-naturlig eng, som dominerer på Ringerike og Hadeland, har flere populasjoner en svakt positiv utvikling. Den usedvanlig tørre sommeren 2018 resulterte i en nedgang i antall blomstrende individer og i antall småplanter. Populasjonene viste imidlertid stor grad av restitusjon allerede de to første årene etter tørkesommeren. Tidsseriene er foreløpig så korte at det er vanskelig å vurdere trender i populasjonsstørrelse over tid, men dataene viser stor variasjon i populasjonene mellom regioner, mellom naturtyper og blant lokaliteter med ulik vegetasjonshøyde. Tidligere studier har vist en tendens til at dragehodepopulasjonene kan deles i fire genetiske grupper som er geografisk adskilte. Dagens overvåking av dragehode dekker to av de genetiske gruppene. Det trengs lange tidsserier for å skille trender i populasjonsutvikling fra mellomårsvariasjoner knyttet til variasjoner i værforhold. Et langsiktig perspektiv på nytten av overvåkingen er derfor helt avgjørende. Vi anbefaler at det utarbeides en langsiktig plan for økt finansiering og en gradvis utvidelse av overvåkingen. Utvidelsen bør sikre at regioner og genetiske hovedgrupper blir omfattet av overvåking og at antallet populasjoner per region blir stort nok til å avdekke regionale variasjoner i trender.

• Garnåsjordet, Per Arild; Framstad, Erik; Aslaksen, Iulie; Jakobsson, Simon; Skarpaas, Olav & Chen, Xianwen (2019). Naturindeks og økonomisk aktivitet: Analyse av påvirkningsfaktorer. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242645029. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Naturindeks for Norge er et verktøy for å beskrive tilstand og utvikling for biologisk mangfold på nasjonalt nivå. Ved valg av indikatorer til naturindeksen er det lagt vekt på å dekke ulike aspekter ved biologisk mangfold, samt tilgang på data. Selv om kunnskap om årsak til endringer i tilstand for biologisk mangfold er viktig for naturforvaltning, er naturindeksen ikke bygd opp rundt påvirkningsfaktorer for indikatorene. For å knytte naturindeksen nærmere opp til kunnskap om påvirkningsfaktorer, ble det i datainnsamlingen for Naturindeks i 2010 lagt inn spørsmål der ekspertene ble bedt om å vurdere viktige påvirkningsfaktorer for indikatorene. Data om påvirkningsfaktorer ble vurdert i sammenheng med vurdering av framtidig utvikling i naturindeksrapporten 2010 og analysert mer omfattende i naturindeksrapporten 2015. Datamaterialet er imidlertid ikke tilstrekkelig til en omfattende analyse av sammenhenger mellom påvirkningsfaktorer og biologisk mangfold. For det første er påvirkninger angitt i form av ekspertvurderinger av indikatorenes følsomhet for påvirkning, og ikke faktisk påvirkning, graden av konsekvens eller muligheter for å gjøre tiltak. For det andre er påvirkninger kun angitt for indikatorene som sådan, og ikke knyttet til bestemte arealer hvor indikatorene forekommer. Formålet med dette prosjektet for Miljødirektoratet var å gjennomføre en stedfestet analyse av menneskeskapte påvirkninger på de økologiske indikatorene i naturindeksen for å øke kunnskapen om sammenhengen mellom tilstanden for biologisk mangfold, målt ved naturindeks, og menneskelig påvirkning gjennom økonomisk aktivitet, som ulike typer utbygging og inngrep i naturen. Slik kunnskap kan bidra til å styrke naturindeksens relevans for miljøforvaltning og gi bedre grunnlag for å vurdere miljøtilstand, mulige miljømål for forvaltningen, og mulige tiltak for forvaltning av hovedøkosystemene. Prosjektet er avgrenset til påvirkning på biologisk mangfold i terrestriske økosystem. Prosjektet har bestått av tre deler: Innsamling av ekspertkunnskap med vekt på samtaler med de som hadde vært ansvarlige for rapporteringen av enkeltindikatorer, tilrettelegging av arealdata, særlig om påvirkningsfaktorer, og analyse av sammenheng mellom påvirkninger og naturindeksverdier. Vurdering av påvirkningsfaktorer er en velkjent problemstilling for mange forskere og eksperter som deltar i arbeidet med naturindeksen. I arbeidet med norsk rødliste for arter etterspør Artsdatabanken vurderinger fra ekspertene av påvirkninger på artene. Rapporten presenterer først ulike tilnærminger til klassifikasjon og studier av påvirkningsfaktorer mer generelt. Deretter presenteres arbeidet med påvirkningsfaktorer slik det er benyttet i Naturindeks for Norge. Til slutt presenteres analysen av sammenhenger mellom verdien til naturindeksindikatorer og omfanget av påvirkningsfaktorer. Betydningen av ulike påvirkningsfaktorer er diskutert med ekspertene på de enkelte indikatorene. I dette prosjektet fant vi en klar støtte til å inkludere spørsmål om påvirkningsfaktorer i naturindeksarbeidet videre. Flere eksperter uttalte at det vil være relevant å kunne vurdere påvirkningsfaktorer på nytt i 2020. Det ble pekt på at det bør være rom for å oppgi flere konkrete påvirkningsfaktorer. Analyse av påvirkningsfaktorer for naturindeks-indikatorer kan også være nyttig for videre arbeid med fagsystem for økologisk tilstand. Alt i alt er det behov for bedre økologiske overvåkingsdata og modellerte indikatorverdier, med høyere geografisk oppløsning. Selv om kunnskap om indikatorene som inngår i naturindeksen er basert på forskning og overvåking av de enkelte artene, vil det være nyttig å kunne vurdere effekten av påvirkningsfaktorer i forbindelse med arbeidet med naturindeksen.

• Skarpaas, Olav; Töpper, Joachim Paul; Nilsen, Erlend Birkeland & Åström, Jens (2018). Dataflyt og modellering av indikatorer for naturindeksen. Norsk institutt for naturforskning (NINA). ISSN 9788242632999. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Som en del av arbeidet mot en kostnadseffektiv, robust og høyoppløselig naturindeks, er det ønskelig å se nærmere på muligheter for å kombinere data fra ulike kilder ved modellering, og legge til rette for forbedret romlig oppløsning, geografisk dekning og automatisering av naturin-deksberegninger. I denne rapporten forsøker vi å ta noen skritt i retning av å svare på disse utfordringene gjennom konseptuelle rammeverk for integrert hierarkisk modellering og dataflyt-struktur, illustrert med eksempler. Vi omtaler kort noen viktige datakilder og deres egenskaper (datastruktur, format) samt mulig-heter for eksport/import, med fokus på datakilder som er relevante for modelleringsarbeid i det-te og beslektede prosjekter (planter, fugl og miljøvariabler). På sikt vil en skriptbasert dataflyt legge til rette for automatisert oppdatering av modeller og indikatorverdier i naturindeksen når datasettene oppdateres. Vi har imidlertid ikke gått langt i retning av standardisering av dataflyt i dette prosjektet, fordi det har blitt klart i løpet av arbeidet at dataflyt til naturindeksen bør være en del av en mer langsiktig og bredere tverrinstitusjonell prosess. For å illustrere modellering som kan gi heldekkende indikatorverdier, bruker vi fjellfiol Viola bi-flora (tilsvarende øvelser for fugl presenteres i en egen rapport). Fjellfiol er ikke en indikatorart for naturindeksen, men fungerer som et demonstrasjonseksempel på hvordan klimadata, popu-lasjonsdata og forekomstdata kan integreres for å predikere forekomst og populasjonssstørrel-se over tid, og gi estimater av indikatorverdi og tilhørende usikkerhet med høy oppløsning. Vi beskriver den nyeste utviklingen av rutiner for import av modellerte indikatorverdier til natur-indeksbasen med R-pakken ‘NIcalc’. I tillegg til det tradisjonelle formatet på indikatorverdier (middelverdi og kvartiler), vil nå også parameteriserte lognormalfordelinger, parameteriserte poissonfordelinger, diskrete fordelinger, og empiriske fordelinger aksepteres som indikatorver-dier. Dette øker mulighetene for å bruke resultater fra flere ulike typer modeller, inkludert inte-grerte hierarkiske modeller, direkte som input til naturindeksen. Avslutningsvis diskuterer og oppsummerer vi våre resultater og erfaringer i forhold til mulighe-ter for økt datatilgang og automatisert oppdatering av naturindeksen. Vi konkluderer med to anbefalinger: For det første, at rammeverket for dataflyt til naturindeksen bør tas videre i et bredt tverrinstitusjonelt samarbeid mellom sentrale dataaktører og sees i sammenheng med beslektede prosesser og systemer i forvaltningen. For det andre, at modelleringsarbeidet i det-te og tidligere prosjekter, som gir grunnlag for å øke oppløsning og geografisk dekning av na-turindeksindikatorer, samt å øke antall indikatorer, legges til grunn for en revurdering av natur-indeksens indikatorsett for planter fram mot neste hovedoppdatering. NØKKELORD Norge, Sogn og fjordane fylke, Aurland kommune Fjellfiol, Viola biflora Issoleie, Ranunculus glacialis Naturindeks Modellering KEY WORDS Norway, Sogn og fjordane county, Aurland municipality Yellow arctic violet, Viola biflora Glacier buttercup, Ranunculus glacialis Nature index Modelling

• Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne; Evju, Marianne; Skarpaas, Olav; Jacobsen, Rannveig Margrete & Birkemoe, Tone (2018). Nasjonal overvåking av hule eiker: Resultat første omløp og forslag til videreføring. Norges miljø- og biovitenskapelige universitet (NMBU). Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This report summarizes the results from the first cycle of the national monitoring of hollow oaks, during which 657 hollow oaks were surveyed in the 500 monitoring sites. We use the definition of hollow oak from the Nature Diversity Act https://lovdata.no/dokument/SF/forskrift/2011-05-13-512. Number of hollow oaks and number of oaks covered by the regulation in Norway Our estimates indicate that there are approximately 60 000 trees covered by the regulation for hollow oaks in Norway (with a 95% confidence interval spanning 34 000 to 98 000 trees). Consequently, many trees covered by the regulation have not yet been registered. Additionally, there are approximately 77 000 hollow oaks not covered by the regulation (95% confidence interval; 32 000–144 000). It follows from this that many hollow oaks in productive forests have not been registered in environmental surveys at present. The majority of the hollow oaks in Norway have a circumference of 200 to 249 cm, but there are also many trees with a small circumference of 149 cm or less (22% of the trees covered by the regulation and 36% of the trees not covered). Of all the hollow oaks (including trees both within and outside the scope of the regulation), 18% are considered to have the highest value (A-trees) in terms of tree characteristics known to be important to biodiversity (size, hollowness etc.), while 38% are considered to have a so-called B-value and 44% are considered to have C-value. The regulation covers a lower proportion of the most valuable trees. Only 18% of the A-trees (i.e. an estimated 4 500 trees) are covered, in comparison with 47% and 53% of the B- and C-trees, respectively. A large proportion of the oaks reported by the field workers to occur in forest, did not occur in forest according to the map layer (AR5) upon which the regulation is based. It is well known that a process of forest expansion is currently taking place in formerly open areas in Norwegian agricultural landscapes. Since the regulation follows the forest status given by the AR5 map, an update of this map after regrowth can alter the coverage of the regulation. Our results indicate that this might lead to the loss of regulation status for a significant number of trees, some with high conservation value, at the next map update. Evaluation of the monitoring method Our analyses from this first monitoring cycle shows that the scope of the monitoring is satisfactory for most purposes and will allow changes of relatively small percentages in number of trees or their condition (e.g. in terms of circumference or surrounding regrowth) to be discovered. At the same time, a relatively small change in terms of percentages will still represent a large number of trees, and thousands of hollow oaks covered by the regulation can be lost without being noticeable in terms of a statistically significant change with the current surveillance procedure. Increasing the number of surveillance sites in the current procedure will not increase detectability of change significantly. Instead, we recommend alternative supplementary strategies: existing data can be analysed in order to develop a map of probable occurrence of hollow oaks, which can be used to implement a targeted survey to increase the number of registered hollow oaks. In addition, it is possible to develop a remote sensing methodology that can be used to monitor status of already registered hollow oaks. However, continued monitoring of the already registered hollow oaks will not provide accurate estimates of the development for hollow oaks in general, since the registration of hollow oaks in Naturbase is likely to reduce the probability that these trees will be cut, relative to hollow oaks not registered in Naturbase. Continuation We recommend continuing the monitoring, and that a regular yearly activity is planned, with a five year cycle. We suggest that the 114 sites with hollow oaks (657 trees) and recruitment trees are surveyed in year one, while the insect community in hollow oaks are surveyed in years 2−5. Monitoring of the hollow oaks includes checking on all trees in the field, to control their status and test accuracy of measurements. It is also important to reassess regulation coverage in the event of a map layer (AR5) update. The insect monitoring includes sampling of insect communities in two subsets of monitoring oaks. These subsets will be sampled every second year during the years 2−5 of a monitoring cycle.

View all works in NVA