Prediction modelling: A reliable tool for evaluating the status of Norwegian Red listed insects?
The most recent edition of the Norwegian Red List adopted the IUCN (2001) categories and criteria. However, these criteria are difficult to apply directly to insects. This project explores the possibilities for employing distribution modelling methods in the evaluation of the Red List status of insect species.
Museum collections and databases are used to compile datasets of geo-referenced species occurrences. Employing distribution modelling methods, such as MAXENT, the geographical distributions of red listed insect species in Norway are modelled. Relations between known and modelled distributions can potentially be used to evaluate their Red List status. However, data from museum collections and databases are often scarce and/or biased. A prerequisite for applying such data to distribution modelling is the understanding of how the varying data quantity and quality affects the modelling results. This project focuses on these issues, aiming at making distribution modelling a more reliable tool for nature management.